This week’s global review

11th June 2015

In this week’s GWR, we look at the increasingly strange relationship between money growth and bond markets – why money and liquidity growth is slowing in many of the DM as bond markets sell off.  This is yet another unwelcome…

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The Mechanics of Deflation in 2015

10th June 2015

There are clear signs that private sector investment trends have been weakening at a time in which savings rates have been moving higher.  In theory, governments should have reacted to this situation by easing their fiscal policies so as to…

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New Zealand: As Christchurch rebuild fades, growth will slow

23rd April 2015

The rebuilding of quake-hit CHCH added perhaps as much as 15% to GDP but with this activity now beginning to ebb, milk prices falling and the country’s largest trading partner (Australia) struggling, there seems to be nothing left in the…

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Japan saves its commodity windfall

23rd April 2015

The fall in commodity prices has gifted Japan’s households around Y10 trillion of extra disposable incomes.  However, far from spending this money, Japan’s households seem to be saving almost all of it.  Low real yields seem to be forcing Japan’s…

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France – underwhelmed

23rd April 2015

Although some of France’s production data has looked better of late, we find that this was largely the result of a long-ago arranged pick up in aircraft output.  In reality, we can find little sign that France’s economy has improved…

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Germany: One off boost?

23rd April 2015

Germany’s economy has clearly picked up over recent months but in our BD151 paper we argue that the revival was simply a one-time reaction to lower commodity prices & the fall in the Euro.  Moreover, we argue that with Germany’s…

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Protected: audio commentary for GLOB156

23rd April 2015

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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China’s dash for cash

25th March 2015

China’s economy has embarked on a dash for cash: equity fund raising has increased, inventories are being liquidated and import shipments are decreasing as companies attempt to conserve their supplies of FOREX. The private sector is also aggressively borrowing liquidity from the…

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Singapore’s choice

24th March 2015

Singapore authorities surprised markets with their emergency policy meeting in January. Having spent most of a decade fighting capital inflows and their effects on the domestic financial system, the authorities are now attempting to prevent a dis-orderly unwind by providing…

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Korea’s imperative

23rd March 2015

Korea’s economy has produced what must be considered as weaker than expected data. Firstly, Korean companies had an over-exuberant attitude regarding to the prospects for a global economic recovery in 2014-5, leading them to employ and invest too much in…

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